Vietnam real estate 2025: disciplined capital, directed growth

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam – Avison Young Vietnam today released its Q4/2025 Quarterly Report of the Vietnam Real Estate market. Over the past year, major Vietnamese macroeconomic shifts, evolving urban classification, and key regulatory reforms have reshaped Vietnam’s population patterns, capital allocation, and medium- to long-term real estate investment prospects. At the same time, several large-scale real estate and infrastructure projects have been launched or given clear timelines, laying the groundwork for the next growth cycle.

Investment landscape: Market share competition increasing and what is believed to be asset repositioning is following decision inertia.

In 2025, the Vietnam's merge & acquisition (M&A) market continued its downward trend in total deal value and volume compared to the 2021–2022 peak (Chart 1). Not only volume contracted, the average deal size in 10M/2025 declined year-on-year (Chart 2).

Chart 1	Chart 2

Real estate continues to attract the most M&A activities. Extended negotiation timelines throughout last year reflected the divergence between forward-looking expectations and near-term risk assessments among market participants. Asset’s location highlighted a strategic shift toward assets aligned with inter-regional infrastructure development.

Domestic investors emerged as the primary acquirers, accounting for a major in transactions valued above 100 million USD. Vietnamese businesses were largely driven by restructuring, divestment, or capital raising activity, or land bank expansion to improve and strengthen cash flow and balance sheets. This can be seen in the transactions of Vincom Retail, Sunshine Group, Phat Dat, and Son Kim Land.

Foreign investors, meanwhile, focused on large-scale, strategic long-term transactions. Examples can be seen in Gamuda Land in Hai Phong, CapitaLand's acquisition of projects from Vinhomes or Japanese investors’ acquisition of 80% stakes in Phat Dat’s Thuan An 1 project.

“Today’s market is tilting in investors’ favor but many still have decision inertia, staying disciplined on pricing and deal structures, especially around legal due diligence and operational risks. Deals that do get across the line are often transformative, allowing investors to consolidate market share and reposition assets before the next growth cycle,” – said David Jackson, Principal and CEO, Avison Young Vietnam, commenting on real estate M&A strategies over the past year. Amid ongoing global capital reallocation, Vietnam’s strategic geographic position and positive economic outlook are expected to support increased investment inflows from 2026 onward.

Vietnam’s 2025 residential market in connection with M&A activity

The residential market showed clear signs of recovery in 2025 after nearly three years of subdued activity, supported by renewed M&A transactions, project resumptions, and new launches.

In Q4, new condominium supply in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) increased moderately as developers took a cautious approach to pricing and closely tracked absorption, with absorption rates reaching 65–75%. Hanoi, by contrast, saw the launch of more than 10,000 new units, largely from large-scale developments. Although large supplies, absorption rates in Hanoi still reached 70–80%. In central Da Nang, primary apartment prices reached new highs in Q4, ranging from 3,020-3,770 USD/sqm, causing a timid absorption rates of 35–40%. Across major markets, mid- to high-end products dominated new supply, further widening the structural gap between segments.

Primary prices continued to rise, with widening divergence between core and peripheral areas. In 2026, supply is expected to expand, while price growth moderates. New supplies are forecast at roughly 15,000 units in HCMC, 10,000 units in Hanoi, and 4,000 units in Da Nang, with projected price increases of 20–25% in HCMC and Hanoi, and 10–15% in Da Nang, respectively.

Current price levels do not point to speculative overheating, but rather reflect structural shifts in urban development, higher construction costs, and rising land values. The rollout of updated 2026 land price frameworks and adjustment coefficients (K-factors) across provinces is expected to accelerate urban land revaluation. While this may create short-term cost pressure, it supports greater pricing transparency and increased public revenue for infrastructure investment.

Residential-related M&A activity remained active alongside these market dynamics. In 2025, majority of transactions recorded in the Greater HCMC area, including 15 deals in the former HCMC and one in the former Binh Duong province. The other 11 deals occurred in Hanoi’s satellite provinces, and one deal recorded in Central Vietnam. This pattern highlights how long-term capital deployment continues to move towards satellite areas, underpinned by strong housing needs, ongoing urban decentralization, and accelerating infrastructure rollout.

Industrial real estate riding the green waves

Vietnam’s industrial real estate sector remained resilient in 2025 despite concerns over tariff shocks and global trade volatility. In the second half of the year, multiple new industrial parks were launched and commissioned nationwide, expanding the supply of serviced land and investment-ready infrastructure. Rental rates and occupancy levels remained broadly stable, while import–export turnover reached record highs, reinforcing Vietnam’s role in global supply chains.

Sustainability emerged as a defining theme. The government’s target for 30% of industrial parks to achieve LEED or equivalent certification by 2030 has pushed energy efficiency to the forefront of development strategies. Transition pressures are expected to intensify as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) comes into full effect in 2026. Industrial parks that integrate energy-efficient design, renewable energy solutions, or LNG as a transition fuel are better positioned to support tenant decarbonization while maintaining operational resilience.

Green adoption has accelerated over the past two years. In 2024, industrial assets recorded the fastest growth in green certifications across all real estate segments, a trend that continued into 2025. Notable completions included Coca-Cola’s LEED Gold-certified plant at Phu An Thanh Industrial Park (Tay Ninh) and LEGO’s LEED Gold and Platinum-certified factory at VSIP 3 (Binh Duong), strengthening the sector’s competitiveness and access to green financing.

Year-end momentum across commercial real estate sectors

Record international visitor arrivals supported strong operating performance in the Hotel and Serviced apartment segments in Q4/2025. In HCMC and Da Nang, average daily rates for five-star hotels rose by around 5% quarter-on-quarter to 188-295 USD/night, respectively. Hotel supply is set to expand further in 2026, with notable upcoming projects including Caption by Hyatt Ba Son, Nobu HCM Hotel, and The Okura Prestige Saigon in HCMC; Hanoi Shilla Monogram, Ascott Tay Ho, and Hyatt Centric in Hanoi; and Iyf Beachfront and Fivitel Nam Hoi An in Da Nang.

Retail real estate also benefited from year-end consumption and service activity. New supply was introduced across major markets, including Hanoi Centre within the Tien Bo Plaza mixed-use complex, the EDGE Advanced-certified MM Mega Market Supercenter in Da Nang, and Bcons City Mall in Dong Hoa Ward, Binh Duong (part of the expanded HCMC).

In the Office sector, leasing competition intensified in HCMC as new supply entered peak absorption. Grade A rents in the CBD remained stable, while Grade B rents saw marginal growth. In 2026, three new office projects are expected to commence operations, namely Hong Fu Plaza, The Kross, and One Hub Saigon Tower 2. In Hanoi, leasing activity primarily involved renewals and relocations rather than net space expansion. Da Nang’s office market is expected to gain momentum over the next two years as the city attracts financial services, high-tech, and innovation-led firms aligned with its planned International Financial Center (IFC).